I was looking at my current run at 5c10c NL last night and comparing it to the run I had at the end of last year and earlier this year. The 2 runs were separated by 15,000 hands of 10c25c NL. I have now played over 38,000 hands during this run and I am up $185 which is 18.5 buyins and represents a win-rate of 2.4 BB/100 hands. At the same stage of the first run I was up over $400!
So am I a worst player now? Or do I put this down to variance? Well actually I think I am a better player now. I am more aggressive both pre- and post- flop, steal more blinds and I am better at folding big hands. Before I knew that I was too passive. Apart from the occasional hand here or very occasional session there ( like last Saturday night) I am very happy with my current game. I just think I am running bad.
Take last night. I played 1,500 hands, which is a lot for me for a week night. I ended up winning a grand total of $2. Sounds like a benign session winning about a buyin less than I should. Sounds not too bad. The reality is it was frustrating beyond belief. I should have been up at least 5 buyins. I lost 2 buyins with AA where I was favourite when the money went in. The second hand is one where you just know things are not going your way. AA all in preflop against two fully stacked players with AKo!! Yummy, Yummy…. I am 92% favourite here to go up 2 buyins in one hand. Flop 10 J Q ROFL………
Now let me point you to a fantastic article that I read about 18 months on tworags.com: Variance – The Grossness (or Beauty!) of Poker.
This is the opening paragraph that pretty well summarises what I am trying to emphasise with these posts:
“While many players realize that statistical swings are part of poker, very few have a real understanding of variance and how it can affect results and bankroll. But the ability to understand and, more importantly, handle the swings is a key characteristic in winning poker players. Even a rudimentary understanding can keep you off tilt, help you be a better judge of your game and better manage your bankroll.”
At the end of this article there is a link to download a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet file that shows beautifully what variance can do. I highly recommend downloading (it is safe from a virus point of view) and going through the exercise. “The spreadsheet allows you to run a scenario where you are a favorite over and over again. You can run just a few scenarios or up to 5,000 scenarios of the same hand and see what type of variance you should expect. Each time you click F9 (the recalc key in Excel) the graph and summary results section changes to reflect new and potential outcomes. “
Have fun!
That spreadsheet shows clearly the importance of sample size when making decisions about your game. Some of the graphs where simply shocking.
The problem with this scenario IMO is that the betting amounts and the pot amounts are never fixed in NLHE. In a vaccum this works out but in NL I think the swings are even bigger.
Even so, I think this article is pretty interesting. Thanks for directing me to it.
Then again after reading it through a few more times, maybe I’m wrong…oh well ignorance is bliss…lol.
No, you are exactly right Brookyln. This spreadsheet is not completely analogous to what can happen over many hands in NL. It shows what can happen when the odds are fixed……but I still think it is useful to help identify what variance can do over thousands of hands.